Understanding how the bookmaker works gives us clues to find loopholes. If you’ve read our articles on how bookmakers work and how they calculate their odds, you may have already found these clues. Far from telling you that we know all the strategies to beat bookmakers, here are just a few tracks that we will explore in this article:
- Compete with bookmakers
- Check coasts when markets open
- Automate the analyses
- Have more information than bookmakers
Compare the odds of bookmakers
This track is the simplest to implement: the comparison of the odds. Indeed, we already have the habit of comparing it on a daily basis for our everyday purchases. Just like buying a phone or oven, we compare the price of each store to make sure we’re going to buy at the best price. In sports betting, we can do the same!
As we have seen, each bookmaker determines its odds based on the probabilities it has previously calculated. However, they do not all have the same criteria for analysis and weighting. In addition, each bookmaker adjusts their odds downwards according to the margin they want to get on each bet. Again, each bookmaker makes different choices.
Be ready to bet when leaving the odds
A second interesting track is to bet close to the opening odds. Remember, we saw that these odds are the first published. They came out of the algorithms of the bookmakers, about a week before the game. Sometimes there are errors in their output, because some information is not yet published or not yet taken into account by the bookmaker. As a result, the odds may decline in the following days, depending on the news.
Be careful, however, this strategy is not 100% successful. Indeed, just as news can change the odds downhill (because the chances of victory increase for a team), they can also make them evolve upwards (the favourite is no longer so because of an injury of the star player for example).
In addition, this solution requires a tool that can alert you when the bookmakers leave the odds. You can easily find tools for bookmakers that offer access to their database with APIs (like Pinnacle, Matchbook) but this limits you in number of bookmakers. This therefore undermines the first track mentioned above. You may be able to find tools with your bookmakers but they will pay for Pinny Alert or Tipstop for example.
Automate your analyses to replay them
Next track: automation of analyses. This solution is a bit more complex than the first two because it requires more work on your part, and some technical knowledge.
Indeed, the principle is first of all to think about an analysis frame each time you want to bet on a match. And then automate this analysis as much as possible. Collect statistical data, collect news, and do what bookmakers do: create an algorithm.
As you will have understood, it will be easier to automate calculations based on statistics (because they are already figures) than on news that must be transposed into numbers to calculate probabilities. In addition, some technical knowledge is needed to collect the data (as the days pass) and code the algorithm.
To counter this problem, you can look at the algorithms offered on the Internet. They have already automated the analysis for you, but unfortunately you cannot choose the criteria of the analysis. You can then perform your own news analysis to confirm the algorithm proposal.
Our Bet Assistant platform offers you a strategy builder feature. Thanks to it, you are the one who selects the criteria on all the available statistics. Next, set the alerts to receive the list of matches corresponding to your criteria at the time you want: match day, game eve and up to D-7.
Specialize in a niche market
Our final proposal is to focus on a specific competition and, if possible, a low-profile competition or sport. Matches related to these competitions or sports are called “niche market”.
As these competitions are less publicized, little information is circulating about them. And bookmakers will not necessarily go looking for them, or less systematically than on the big competitions.
Find very specific information or news about these competitions, and you’ll be one step ahead of the bookmakers. You will be able to more easily detect rib errors. Again, having accounts with multiple bookmakers can allow you to detect those who have information on these niche markets.
This technique is complex to implement because it requires a long research work. It will take you time to detect these competitions and the sources of information that bookmakers do not have.
Goal : to detect valuebet
All these actions will allow us to have an advantage over bookmakers but which one exactly? This is called “valuebets“.
This is one of the few long-term winning strategies against bookmakers. We will detail this strategy in a future article and see how to practice the tricks seen here.