Hello, the punters,
We told you about a strategy called valuebet that uses several of the tips presented in our last article “win against the bookmakers“.
To start, we will define the so-called “valuebet” bet and then we will detail the theory of this strategy with calculations that will show why it is a winning strategy in the long run.
We will then see concretely, step by step, what actions to implement to use it and earn money with.
The whole strategy is based on this type of bet but what does it correspond to?
A valuebet is a bet offered by a bookmaker whose odds are poorly adjusted. That is, the probability associated with the coast is greater than the probability that the event will occur.
Concretely this means that if you consider that the event has a 50% probability and that the bookmaker offers you this event for a score greater than 2 (1/50%) then it is a valuebet.
The huge advantage of this type of bet is that you can find it on any sport, on any market and on any coast!
Indeed, when bookmakers calculate their odds, they can make mistakes when interpreting information or calculating probability. That’s when you have to pay attention to finding those mistakes and taking advantage of them.
Simple no? Let’s now detail how finding valuebets allows you to be profitable in the long term.
Why is it profitable?
To understand we will compare two bettors who take the same bets but on different bookmakers (we will by the way show how the trick of comparing bookmakers can make you become a winning bettor).
Let’s take a bettor 1 who is registered exclusively on the bookmaker B1 and another bettor 2 who is registered on several bookmakers and always chooses the bookmaker with the highest odds to place his bet. The bettor 1 does not know the concept of valuebet and does not calculate probabilities on the bets he makes. The bettor 2 knows the concept of valuebet and compares the probability that he estimated to that of bookmakers.
First bet comes up:
- The bettor 1 bet 100€ on the bookmaker B1 at a odds of 1.5 or 66.6% probability
- Bettor 2 calculated that the probability of the event is 65%. On the B1 bookmaker, there is no point in betting because the bookmaker offers a 66.6% probability that is higher. He then finds a bookmaker who indicates the same event at a score of 1.6 or 62.5% lower. He therefore believes that there is a valuebet because the bookmaker has incorrectly positioned his side. He therefore bets 100€ on the bookmaker with the best odds, let’s say B2 which offers a 1.6 odds.
Good news, the bet is a winner and everyone wins:
- Bettor 1 wins 100€x1.5 = 150€ gross – 100€ bet = 50€ net win
- Bettor 2 wins 100€x1.6 = 160€ gross – 100€ bet = 60€ net win
There is therefore a gain difference of 10€.
Now let’s look at what happens after 1,000 bets.
After 100 bets, the average odds of the bettor 1 are 1.7 and for the bettor 2 1.8 (let’s keep a difference of 0.1 on each odds as in the example above). Since the bettors are neither lucky nor unlucky their success rates (number of winning bets) correspond exactly to the probabilities of the average odds is 58.8% for the bettor 1 and 55.5% for the bettor 2.
|Average odd||Succeess rate||Stake||Count bets||Gross earnings||Net win|
|1,7||58,8%||10 000€ (100x100€)||58 (100x58,8%)||9 860€ (58x100€x1,7)||-140€|
|1,8||58,8%||10 000€ (100x100€)||58 (100x58,8%)||10 440€ (58x100€x1,8)||440€|
The bettor 1 has lost money while the bettor 2 is winning! A net win gap of €580! Thanks to the comparison of the probabilities offered by bookmakers compared to his analysis, the bettor 2 identifies valuebet and earns money.
The first way to find valuebets, we saw earlier in this article: by comparing bookmakers. Choosing the one that offers the highest coast will make our task easier. But be careful, the bookmaker with the highest coast does not necessarily offer a valuebet, its east coast can be very well positioned.
Another tip we shared in our previous article on how to beat bookmakers and bet as soon as possible. Indeed, the earlier the coast comes out and far from the match on which you want to bet, the more there may be errors in the coasts because the bookmakers (like us) do not have all the information: exact composition, injured last minutes, sick, …
The 3rd tip you will also find in our article, is the automation of analyses. Indeed, the more accurate your analyses are, the more likely you will have a precise probability that the event will occur. And if you have done your analysis in advance, as soon as important information comes out (injury, illness, …) you will be able to quickly compare your probability with that of bookmakers and see how they make their coasts evolve in relation to this information.
This is why we have created a unique tool for punters to create and save analysis frames. Thanks to it, you will calculate probabilities quickly and simply while taking into account the multiple criteria chosen by you. In addition, in this tool we show you the best odds of 25 bookmakers in the world and your bookmakers that you have identified as favorite. You will be able to compare your probability with those of bookmakers and several times a week. All you have to do is refine your analysis according to the news and the comparison is displayed in front of you. You will quickly find out whether or not there is a valuebet on the bet under consideration.